Mobile Sites vs. Apps: The Coming Strategy Shift

mikeseaton wrote:Interesting article - makes you think about how .tel will fit in with the evolving situation !

http://MikeSeaton.tel

Now for the $64,000 question — or, more accurately for most companies, the million-dollar question: When will the recommended strategy change? In other words, when will the changeover in favor of mobile sites be strong enough for you to abandon mobile apps?

Sadly, I don't know. Usability insights can tell us what's best for users under various circumstances, but they can't predict how fast these circumstances will change in the real world. In my experience, things change much more slowly than one might expect.

For example, in September 2000, I said that mobile usability required a device with a deck-of-cards form factor that would "get rid of the keys and spend every available square millimeter on pixels." A few months later, I predicted that European vendors' infatuation with non-web mobile phones would lead to the demise of that continent's lead in mobile technology.

Both predictions came true, but not until 7 years later when the iPhone was finally launched as (a) a device with almost the entire surface used for data, and (b) a product from a computer company rather than a phone company.

Even worse, in 2001, I thought that " Mobile Devices Will Soon Be Useful." Sure, if by "soon" you mean 6 years :-(

Good mobile design was so close I could taste it. I knew what was needed, and I didn't think it was so hard to do. But, as the famous saying goes, don't confuse a clear view with a short distance. As I admitted in my retrospective on my first 10 years writing the Alertbox, when I was wrong about the timing it "was often because I was too enthusiastic about a new technology's potential. When I was right , it was often because I was conservative ."

To conclude: I do believe mobile sites will win over mobile apps in the long term. But when that will happen is less certain. Today, if you are serious about creating the best possible mobile user experience, my advice is to develop apps.